The Belgian real estate market continues to show a positive dynamic, with property prices increasing by an average of 3.6% between Q3 2023 and Q3 2024, according to the latest figures published by Statbel. This price increase marks the end of a slowdown period, and the recovery seems to be confirmed as we approach 2025. However, this upward trend is not uniform and varies depending on several factors: the type of property, geographical location, and the overall economic conditions.
Price Increases Differ by Property Type
If we take a closer look at price changes by property type, significant disparities are evident. New homes, in particular, have seen a sharper increase, with prices rising by 5.2% compared to the previous year. In contrast, existing homes have experienced a more modest increase of 3.2%. This price difference can be attributed to several factors, including the higher demand for new properties, often associated with better energy efficiency and modern amenities, which attract buyers looking to reduce their environmental footprint and avoid costly renovations.
A Diverse Regional Dynamic
Geographical disparities in the Belgian real estate market are also noteworthy. In Wallonia, prices for existing homes have risen by 3% over the past year, following a modest increase of just 0.3% in the previous quarter. This significant rise indicates that, despite a slower start, Wallonia is now becoming a more attractive investment destination, particularly for buyers seeking more affordable prices compared to other regions.
In Flanders, price growth is even more pronounced, reaching 3.6%, further confirming that this region remains a hub of real estate growth, driven by strong demand from both local buyers and foreign investors. In Brussels, however, price growth remains more moderate at just 1.4%. This can be explained by various factors, including a higher supply and market saturation in some neighborhoods, which leads to price stability.
Outlook for 2025: A Marked Recovery and Favorable Factors
The outlook for 2025 remains optimistic. Economists expect a strong recovery in the real estate market, with an average price increase of 3% projected for 2025, followed by a 3.8% increase in 2026. Several factors are expected to support this trend:
Wage Revaluation: In January 2025, many households will benefit from a wage increase of over 3%, boosting their purchasing power and supporting their ability to invest in real estate. This will also help mitigate the impact of rising prices.
Interest Rate Stability: Although mortgage rates are higher than in previous years, they have stabilized in recent months. This stability reassures potential buyers, offering them a clearer outlook for planning their real estate projects in the medium term. Banks, though more selective, continue to offer loans to financially stable borrowers, maintaining consumer confidence.
Registration Fee Reform in Wallonia: Starting in January 2025, registration fees in Wallonia will be significantly reduced from 12% to 3% for the purchase of a first property. This reform aims to make property acquisition more accessible, particularly for first-time buyers, and could stimulate demand in the market.
Limited Supply: Increased Competition and Price Pressure
However, despite these favorable factors, buyers will face increased competition in the market. The number of potential buyers is expected to rise, driven by wage increases and other favorable measures. However, the supply of available properties remains limited, which could continue to drive prices up. This pressure on prices could make homeownership more challenging for some households, especially in the most sought-after areas.
Conclusion: A Tense but Promising Real Estate Market
In conclusion, while the outlook for 2025 is positive, the Belgian real estate market remains subject to the laws of supply and demand. Wage increases, stable interest rates, and the reduction in registration fees are factors that should support the market's recovery. However, competition among buyers, coupled with a limited supply, will likely continue to put pressure on prices, requiring adjustments from both households and investors.
The next few years could offer interesting opportunities for those looking to invest in real estate, but it will be crucial to closely monitor market developments to make informed decisions.
